Nifty fails to hold on to 9,000; all eyes on PM address on lockdown

Indian markets remained under pressure on April 13, tracking weak global cues. The S&P BSE Sensex failed to hold on to 31,000, while the Nifty50 breached its crucial support placed at 9,000.

Let’s look at the final tally on D-Street: the S&P BSE Sensex fell 469 points to 30,690 while the Nifty50 closed 118 points lower at 8993.Sectorally, the action was seen in telecom, capital goods, metals, and infra stocks while profit-taking was visible in realty, consumer durables, finance, auto and banks.

The broader markets outperformed – the S&P BSE Midcap index fell 0.93 percent while the S&P BSE Smallcap index was down 0.46 percent.

The market witnessed last hour selloff ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address on April 14, when the 21-day nationwide lockdown ends. He is expected to spell out the plan his government has put in place to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

Markets will be shut on the day on account of a public holiday.

Although D-Street has factored in a possible extension of the lockdown, there are also reports of a restrictions being eased for certain sectors that should support sentiment.

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COVID-19 impact: Invest for long term to know the true potential of the small and midcaps

The complete shutdown of the business has led to high fixed costs, high working capital, and low liquidity, etc. but one has to identify the value buying which results in high-risk reward as compared to the large caps, Gaurav Garg, Head of Research at CapitalVia Global Research - Investment Advisor, said in an interview with Moneycontrol’s 

The benchmark indices ended with a positive note with an expectation of stimulus package from the government. The number of COVID-19 cases in India is low compare to the other nations like US and European countries like Italy, Spain where the number of deaths is in thousands as compared to the hundreds in India.

Although the government has announced various relief measures to save the economy, investors are still expecting a second stimulus package from the government which might be focused on MSMEs which is the worst hit.

While the number of cases in India is now getting steeper and lockdown is the only solution to prevent the widespread of the virus. Going forward, any extension of the lockdown, especially in the hotspot areas, with the objective of containing the virus, might be a positive sign to the market.

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Indices rally despite lockdown gloom; 16 stocks from BSE 500 surge over 50%

The benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty, have logged gains of nearly 17 percent each since March 24, data from Ace Equity showed.

In order to keep coronavirus infections under check, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced a pan-India lockdown for 21 days on March 24, effective 00:00 hours on March 25.

Since March 25, there were a total of 10 trading sessions. Out of 10, the benchmarks ended in the green in 5 sessions.

This may offer some relief even though Sensex and Nifty are still 26 percent down from their all-time highs of 42,273.87  and 12,430.50, respectively, that they had hit in January 2020.

Amid all the uncertainty in the market, the recent correction in the market has been termed as an investment opportunity by most experts and brokerages.

In the BSE 500 index, as many as 437 stocks logged gains. Out of 437, 16 stocks surged over 50 percent since March 24. As many as 337 stocks jumped more than 10 percent in that period.

 
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Bulls make a comeback as Sensex reclaims 31k; 4 factors leading the rally

D-Street is inching towards a photo finish for the week ended April 10. Bulls fuelled a smart rally which pushed the S&P BSE Sensex beyond 31,000 in trade on April 9, the last trading day for the week, while the Nifty50 reclaimed 9,000 levels.

Sectorally, the rally was seen in auto, telecom, consumer discretionary, finance, healthcare, and consumer durable space.

Strong global cues, and expectations of further stimulus measures from the Indian govt. as well as central bankers across the world are boosting sentiment, suggest experts.

“Market is trading on a firm note in today’s session up by 3.4% amid gains in global, and Asian peers on hopes that the COVID-19 pandemic is nearing a peak in major hotspots countries and that governments would roll out more stimulus measures,” Sundar Sanmukhani, Head of Fundamental Research Desk at Choice Broking said.

“The government is likely to unveil a second stimulus package in the coming days to focus on the help of MSME. Sectorally, all indices were trading in green with auto and pharma index leasing the rally,” he said.

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Coronavirus pandemic | Stock market, financial institutions to remain open: Maharashtra minister

Banks, stock markets and other financial institutions will remain open in Maharashtra, Health Minister Rajesh Tope told CNBC-TV18 after the state government ordered the closure of offices and shops in some cities, including India's financial capital Mumbai.

The state government has stepped up measures to check the spread of coronavirus in Maharashtra which has reported 52 cases so far. All schools, colleges, hotels, malls, etc have already been ordered shut.

"Clearing corporations, depositories, stock-brokers and SEBI registered participants operating through these institutions will be exempted," Tope said. Shutting down the financial services sector was not feasible as of now, he said.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray has asked people to stay at home and step out only in case of emergency.

There has been a steady rise in reported infections in India, which rose to 206 on March 20. India has so far reported five deaths.



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Crude oil futures gain 2.68% on global cues

Crude oil prices on March 20 rose 2.68 percent to Rs 2,033 per barrel as participants widened their positions tracking a positive trend overseas. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in April traded higher by Rs 53, or 2.68 percent, to Rs 2,033 per barrel in 46,577 lots.

Crude oil for May delivery was up by Rs 28, or 1.31 percent, to Rs 2,158 per barrel with an open interest of 822 lots.

Analysts said raising of bets by participants kept crude prices higher in futures trade here.
Globally, West Texas Intermediate was trading higher by 1.71 percent at $25.65 per barrel and, Brent crude was up by 1.16 percent to $28.80 per barrel in New York.


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Gold rises as ECB measures to limit virus impact lift sentiment

Gold prices rose on Thursday after a steep fall in the previous session, as the European Central Bank's measures to mitigate the economic effects of the coronavirus epidemic lifted investor sentiment.

* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,491.40 per ounce by 0040 GMT, having risen 1% earlier in the session.

* The metal fell about 3% on Wednesday along with other precious metals, as investors sold across assets to hoard cash.

* U.S. gold futures rose 1.2% to $1,495.80 per ounce.

* Asian stock markets fought to stabilise, as the latest promise of stimulus from the European Central Bank propped up sentiment while the world struggles to contain the virus pandemic. U.S. stock futures turned positive.

* The euro rose against the dollar and the pound after the ECB's asset-purchase programme announcement in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

* The European Central Bank launched a 750 billion euro ($818 billion) emergency bond purchase programme on Wednesday to push down borrowing costs in a bloc struggling with the economic fallout of coronavirus.

* Japan's annual core consumer inflation eased in February as energy prices fell and the outbreak clouded the outlook as consumers grow more cautious about spending, adding to fears the economy could be sliding into recession.


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Indices off day's low, Nifty above 8,900; Yes Bank, ZEE top gainers

Benchmark indices have fallen more than 20 percent from their respective record highs registered in January effectively placing the Indian market in a bear phase.

So is the time right for value buying or is the market expected to fall more?
The first thing which one should understand is not to be under an illusion that they can time the market. Yes, the way this can be done is to deploy cash in markets in a staggered way.

“In this sharp decline, we are suggesting our clients begin their investments in quality stocks with 20-25 percent of their investment corpus designated for the equity asset class and infuse their capital slowly in the next 2-3 installments whereas traders should still remain cautious as market volatility will remain an intact cause of coronavirus crisis,” Amit Gupta, Co-Founder, and CEO, TradingBells told Moneycontrol.

“Traders should adopt “Hit and Run Gorilla Trades” which means they should not take overnight positions, should respect the intraday trend and square up their positions in a day itself,” he said.
The next question is how can one look at picking stocks? There will be a lot of beaten-down stocks that might be looking attractive from a price perspective, but are all of them a good buy? History, suggest otherwise.


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Multibagger opportunity? A 30% market fall in past generated wealth in subsequent year

Indian market is already in a bear phase, down more than 20 percent from the recent highs. Historical data of the past 20 years suggests markets usually create a bottom after falling around 39 percent on average.

The Nifty50 has declined more than 30 percent in the last three months.
In the last 2 decades, there have been six instances when the market corrected by 25 percent or more, ICICIdirect said in a report.

Despite a coordinated response from global central bankers to stem the slowdown and avoid a possible recession, there is a risk-off sentiment in equity markets across the globe which is pushing money out of riskier assets to safe-havens.

Coronavirus scare has grown multi-fold post its spread across the key economic zone of Europe and the US. The number of affected cases in India is not significant but they are rising which does pose a challenge for the government.




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Yes Bank rallies more than 50% post restructuring plan

Yes Bank rallied more than 50 percent in a single trading session on March 16 after the Cabinet approved Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) reconstruction scheme for the bank.

The restructuring plan which involves capital infusion of Rs 7,250 crores by SBI, Rs 1,000 crores each by HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, Rs 600 crores by Axis Bank and Rs 500 crores by Kotak Bank has come as a big relief.

Moreover, Federal Bank and IDFC First Bank board approved the investment of Rs 300 crore and Rs 250 crore, respectively, while Bandhan Bank granted approval for an equity investment of Rs 300 crore for acquiring up to 30 crore equity shares of Yes Bank.

Emkay Global maintains a sell call on the stock saying that sustainable revival will need many more steps, including continued capital support.

The must-have strategy to contain deposits run-down, and it will be a long battle for the bank to survive and thrive independently, the report added.

For SBI, the current reconstruction scheme takes away the immediate risk of a merger, and we hope that similar reconstruction schemes will be worked out for other weak private banks, Emkay said.



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