Friday, March 20, 2020

Coronavirus pandemic | Stock market, financial institutions to remain open: Maharashtra minister

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Banks, stock markets and other financial institutions will remain open in Maharashtra, Health Minister Rajesh Tope told CNBC-TV18 after the state government ordered the closure of offices and shops in some cities, including India's financial capital Mumbai.

The state government has stepped up measures to check the spread of coronavirus in Maharashtra which has reported 52 cases so far. All schools, colleges, hotels, malls, etc have already been ordered shut.

"Clearing corporations, depositories, stock-brokers and SEBI registered participants operating through these institutions will be exempted," Tope said. Shutting down the financial services sector was not feasible as of now, he said.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray has asked people to stay at home and step out only in case of emergency.

There has been a steady rise in reported infections in India, which rose to 206 on March 20. India has so far reported five deaths.



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Crude oil futures gain 2.68% on global cues

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Crude oil prices on March 20 rose 2.68 percent to Rs 2,033 per barrel as participants widened their positions tracking a positive trend overseas. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in April traded higher by Rs 53, or 2.68 percent, to Rs 2,033 per barrel in 46,577 lots.

Crude oil for May delivery was up by Rs 28, or 1.31 percent, to Rs 2,158 per barrel with an open interest of 822 lots.

Analysts said raising of bets by participants kept crude prices higher in futures trade here.
Globally, West Texas Intermediate was trading higher by 1.71 percent at $25.65 per barrel and, Brent crude was up by 1.16 percent to $28.80 per barrel in New York.


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Thursday, March 19, 2020

Gold rises as ECB measures to limit virus impact lift sentiment

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Gold prices rose on Thursday after a steep fall in the previous session, as the European Central Bank's measures to mitigate the economic effects of the coronavirus epidemic lifted investor sentiment.

* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,491.40 per ounce by 0040 GMT, having risen 1% earlier in the session.

* The metal fell about 3% on Wednesday along with other precious metals, as investors sold across assets to hoard cash.

* U.S. gold futures rose 1.2% to $1,495.80 per ounce.

* Asian stock markets fought to stabilise, as the latest promise of stimulus from the European Central Bank propped up sentiment while the world struggles to contain the virus pandemic. U.S. stock futures turned positive.

* The euro rose against the dollar and the pound after the ECB's asset-purchase programme announcement in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

* The European Central Bank launched a 750 billion euro ($818 billion) emergency bond purchase programme on Wednesday to push down borrowing costs in a bloc struggling with the economic fallout of coronavirus.

* Japan's annual core consumer inflation eased in February as energy prices fell and the outbreak clouded the outlook as consumers grow more cautious about spending, adding to fears the economy could be sliding into recession.


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Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Indices off day's low, Nifty above 8,900; Yes Bank, ZEE top gainers

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Benchmark indices have fallen more than 20 percent from their respective record highs registered in January effectively placing the Indian market in a bear phase.

So is the time right for value buying or is the market expected to fall more?
The first thing which one should understand is not to be under an illusion that they can time the market. Yes, the way this can be done is to deploy cash in markets in a staggered way.

“In this sharp decline, we are suggesting our clients begin their investments in quality stocks with 20-25 percent of their investment corpus designated for the equity asset class and infuse their capital slowly in the next 2-3 installments whereas traders should still remain cautious as market volatility will remain an intact cause of coronavirus crisis,” Amit Gupta, Co-Founder, and CEO, TradingBells told Moneycontrol.

“Traders should adopt “Hit and Run Gorilla Trades” which means they should not take overnight positions, should respect the intraday trend and square up their positions in a day itself,” he said.
The next question is how can one look at picking stocks? There will be a lot of beaten-down stocks that might be looking attractive from a price perspective, but are all of them a good buy? History, suggest otherwise.


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Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Multibagger opportunity? A 30% market fall in past generated wealth in subsequent year

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Indian market is already in a bear phase, down more than 20 percent from the recent highs. Historical data of the past 20 years suggests markets usually create a bottom after falling around 39 percent on average.

The Nifty50 has declined more than 30 percent in the last three months.
In the last 2 decades, there have been six instances when the market corrected by 25 percent or more, ICICIdirect said in a report.

Despite a coordinated response from global central bankers to stem the slowdown and avoid a possible recession, there is a risk-off sentiment in equity markets across the globe which is pushing money out of riskier assets to safe-havens.

Coronavirus scare has grown multi-fold post its spread across the key economic zone of Europe and the US. The number of affected cases in India is not significant but they are rising which does pose a challenge for the government.




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Monday, March 16, 2020

Yes Bank rallies more than 50% post restructuring plan

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Yes Bank rallied more than 50 percent in a single trading session on March 16 after the Cabinet approved Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) reconstruction scheme for the bank.

The restructuring plan which involves capital infusion of Rs 7,250 crores by SBI, Rs 1,000 crores each by HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, Rs 600 crores by Axis Bank and Rs 500 crores by Kotak Bank has come as a big relief.

Moreover, Federal Bank and IDFC First Bank board approved the investment of Rs 300 crore and Rs 250 crore, respectively, while Bandhan Bank granted approval for an equity investment of Rs 300 crore for acquiring up to 30 crore equity shares of Yes Bank.

Emkay Global maintains a sell call on the stock saying that sustainable revival will need many more steps, including continued capital support.

The must-have strategy to contain deposits run-down, and it will be a long battle for the bank to survive and thrive independently, the report added.

For SBI, the current reconstruction scheme takes away the immediate risk of a merger, and we hope that similar reconstruction schemes will be worked out for other weak private banks, Emkay said.



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Yellow metal recovers 1% post steep fall on US Fed action

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India Gold April futures rebounded on 16 March after a sharp fall seen in the previous trading session as US dollar and global equities fell sharply after the US Federal Reserve made another surprise interest rate cut.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), April gold contracts were trading higher by Rs 656, or 1.6 percent, at Rs 41,004 per 10 gram at 0940 hours.

Despite the announcement of QE and interest rates cut by most of the global Central Banks global equities crashed last week, panic sell-off in equity puts pressure on bullions, suggest experts.

Gold cracked around 10 percent from the highs and silver prices cracked more than 15 percent from the highs during the week. Experts feel that the volatility will remain a dominant factor in this week and Gold could face resistance around 42,000.

“Prices of both the precious metals crashed in international as well as domestic market. It's more than the market pain seen during the 2008 Lehman brothers crisis.

Looking to the panic in global financial markets and extreme volatility due to fear of coronavirus we expect prices of both the precious metals remain volatile this week,” Manoj Jain, Director, IndiaNivesh Commodities, told Moneycontrol.


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Friday, March 13, 2020

Benchmark indices hit lower circuit with Nifty at 3-year low


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Indian market hit a lower circuit in the first 15 minutes of trade. The trading is now halted for around 45 minutes. Massive selling was seen in benchmark indices, pushing both Sensex and Nifty below their crucial support levels.

Exchanges compute the index circuit breaker limits for 10%, 15% and 20% levels on a daily basis based on the previous day's closing level of the index rounded off to the nearest tick size.

The Nifty50 breached 8,800 levels for the first time since February 2017, a 3-year low. The S&P BSE Sensex plunged more than 3,000 points to hit a 3-year low on Friday.

The Indian rupee fell in the opening trade on Friday. It opened lower by 17 paise at 74.40 per dollar against previous close 74.23.


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Thursday, March 12, 2020

Nifty slips below 9,700 for the first time since Sep 2017


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The Nifty50 took a vertical fall from the high of 12,430 recorded on January 20 to 9,875, which is the intraday low as on March 12 — a fall of 20.56 percent.

Tracking the sell-off in global equities, Nifty50 hit a 32-month low while the S&P BSE Sensex breached 34,000 to hit a 24-month low on March 12.

Nifty broke below 9,700 level for the first time since September 2017.

Theoretically, a bear market condition gets triggered whenever a stock or an index falls more than 20 percent from its record high. Mimicking the fall in Nifty, the S&P BSE Sensex has also entered a bear phase.

The S&P BSE Sensex fell from the high of 42,273 recorded on January 20, to 33,723, which effectively translates into a decline of more than 20 percent.

But, this is not the first time when the Nifty50 has entered a bear phase. The last time when it entered bearish territory was in 2015 before bouncing back.

The Nifty50 registered a vertical sell-off from 9,119 recorded on March 4, 2015 to 6,825 which was the intraday low formed on February 29, 2016 which effectively translates into a drop of more than 25 percent.

In 2010, the market bottomed out after taking a hit of 28 percent from the highs of 6,338–4,531.


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Friday, March 6, 2020

Crude oil futures slips close to 3% in afternoon trade


Crude oil futures slipped to Rs 3,466 per barrel on March 5 as participants increased their short positions. Oil prices erased its morning gain as Saudi Arabia failed to bring Russia on board for a deeper cut to offset the slump in demand caused by the coronavirus outbreak.

Data released by US Energy Information Administration on March 4 showed crude stock grew by 785,000 barrels, less than the 2.64 Mbpd increase anticipated by analysts.

In the futures market, crude oil for March delivery touched an intraday high of Rs 3,518 and a low of Rs 3,450 per barrel on the MCX. So far in the current series, black gold has touched a low of Rs 3,206 and a high of Rs 4,604.

Crude oil delivery for March eased Rs 90, or 2.57 percent, to Rs 3,417 per barrel at 16:00 hours IST. The same for April was down Rs 90, or 2.54 percent to Rs 3,448 per barrel.
The value of March and April contracts traded so far is Rs 5,670.40 crore and Rs 132.42 crore, respectively.

MCX crude oil is expected to trade negatively with resistance at Rs 3,580 per barrel and intermediate resistance at Rs 3,540, Motilal Oswal said in a recent note. The brokerage firm advised its client to sell targeting lower resistance at Rs 3,455-3,420 levels.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.88 percent to $46.36 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, was down 0.86 percent to $50.69


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Thursday, March 5, 2020

Coronavirus fears slash crude prices


Mumbai: A sharp fall in crude oil prices is good for companies spanning industry sectors such as oil marketing, paints, tyres, speciality chemicals, plastic piping, aviation, and cement who use it as a key raw material, said analysts.
Mumbai: A sharp fall in crude oil prices is good for companies spanning industry sectors such as oil marketing, paints, tyres, speciality chemicals, plastic piping, aviation, and cement who use it as a key raw material, said analysts.
“Fall in crude prices is likely to be beneficial for companies in the speciality chemicals space such as Aarti Industries, Atul, Sudarshan Chemical and also for plastic piping companies such as Astral Poly Technik and Supreme Industries as it will ease the input cost pressures and enhance the gross margins,” said Rishab Bothra, senior research analyst at Sharekhan. “However the same is expected to be seen with a lag effect.”
Brent crude has crashed 21 per cent to $52.3 per barrel since the beginning of the year to hit a 30-month low. The increase in oil production in the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway and the declining demand from China is adding to the excess supply of oil. The crude barometer is likely to stay at $50 levels until the demand outlook in China and across the world improves, which may take another 6-12 months, say economists.



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