Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Oil drops second day as surging coronavirus cases prompt demand worries


Oil prices fell for a second day on Wednesday, extending big losses from the previous session amid rising concerns about fuel demand as the coronavirus pandemic worsens.

Brent crude dropped 23 cents, or 0.6%, to $41.03 per barrel by 0048 GMT. West Texas Intermediate fell 26 cents, or 0.7%, to $39.29.

The benchmarks fell more than 3% on Tuesday as global COVID-19 cases passed 1 million, having doubled in three months.

"It is important to keep in mind that moves to the downside have the potential to be supersized," given rising coronavirus cases and increasing oil supplies around the world, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.

CEOs of the world's biggest trading companies are forecasting a weak recovery for oil demand and little movement in prices in the coming months and potentially years.

Weighing heavily on markets is the continued depressed demand for jet fuel, with air travel in the doldrums due to coronavirus restrictions and a general disinclination to travel.

Refineries have been trying to find ways to blend their product but an oversupply remains and some plants will be forced to shut down.

Marathon Petroleum Corp, the largest oil refiner in the United States, started imposing job cuts on Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter.

To counter the fall in demand the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to increase oil production as planned from January next year, traders said on Tuesday.

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Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Stocks vulnerable due to tepid economic recovery


The Indian market has rallied by over 50 percent from the March lows but the recent rally has made valuations slightly expensive in the absence of any meaningful recovery in earnings, which leaves little room on the upside, Sahil Kapoor, Chief Market Strategist, Edelweiss Professional Investor Research said in a note.

Valuations remain the bedrock of looking at evolving macro data and subsequent action on stocks, bonds and currencies. The recent phase of overheated stock prices meant that markets were discounting a quicker move to normalcy than the data suggested.

“We recommend to err on the side of optimism when valuations are attractive, and that phase is likely to unfold in the current round of correction. The message to investors is to ‘Be Agile, Be Ready’, he said.

Kapoor in the note said that Indian equity markets have been trading at cyclically expensive valuations reflecting a quick road to normalcy. At the recent swing high of 11,800 Nifty traded at a PE of more than 19.2 times of FY22 EPS.

More opportunities are likely to emerge in the small and mid (SMID) cap space which are more attuned to the trends in the broader economy. The recent rally in SMID may see pressure from slowing high-frequency data.

Our conjecture is that SMID will continue to reflect changes in high-frequency data as the ability of market participants to decipher the way to normalcy remains limited.

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Thursday, September 17, 2020

Indian rupee settles 14 paise lower at 73.66 against US dollar


The rupee depreciated 14 paise and settled at 73.66 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday tracking muted domestic equities.

At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened on a weak note at 73.70, and finally closed at 73.66 against the American currency, registering a fall of 14 paise over its last close.

During the session, the domestic unit witnessed an intra-day high of 73.64 and a low of 73.78 against the greenback. On Wednesday, the rupee had strengthened by 12 paise to 73.52 against the US dollar.

On Wednesday, the rupee had strengthened by 12 paise to 73.52 against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.06 per cent to 93.15.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex was trading 251.35 points lower at 39,051.50 and the broader NSE Nifty fell 74.20 points to 11,530.35.

Foreign institutional investors were net buyers in the capital market as they purchased shares worth Rs 264.66 crore on a net basis on Wednesday, according to provisional exchange data.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.33 per cent to USD 42.08 per barrel.

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Thursday, September 10, 2020

Gold at one-week high as weak dollar supports


Gold steadied near a one-week high on Thursday as the dollar weakened, but the yellow metal traded in a narrow $8 range as investors held back from making large bets ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision due later in the day.

Spot gold was flat at $1,945.87 per ounce by 0307 GMT, after hitting its highest since Sept. 3 at $1,950.51 on Wednesday.

U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,955.50.

"The U.S. dollar is a bit lower, stocks bounced a bit and that essentially carried over to gold as well," said DailyFx currency strategist Ilya Spivak.

Asian stock markets on Thursday snapped their longest losing streak since February following a bounce on Wall Street, while the dollar index slipped from four-week highs, making gold less expensive for holders of other currencies.

"The ECB meeting is an important piece of event risk... At some extent gold is may be waiting not even just the ECB, also for the U.S. CPI data and the Federal Reserve next week," Spivak said

The ECB is all but certain to keep policy unchanged when it announces its decision at 1145 GMT, which will then followed by a news conference by its President Christine Lagarde.

The U.S. central bank will follow closely with a two-day meeting set for next week.

Major central banks have rolled out unprecedented stimulus measures and kept interest rates low, driving gold to new highs because of its role as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement.

"Ample money supply, lower interest rates and macro uncertainty should support gold investment," ANZ analysts said in a note. "Physical demand is recovering, so we see the gold price reaching $2,300/oz next year."

Elsewhere, silver was steady at $27.02 per ounce, platinum rose 0.4% to $919.24 and palladium gained 1% at $2,295.85.

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Wednesday, September 9, 2020

Oil breaks below $40/bbl on demand concerns, improving supply


After days of rangebound movement, crude oil price has slipped below the key $40 per barrel and tested the lowest level since late June.

Crude oil was bound in a range for the last few weeks owing to mixed factors both on demand front as well as supply. Price however benefitted from general strength in equity markets and weakness in the US dollar.

Crude weakened sharply in the last few sessions amid first signs of correction in the US equity market. The US DJIA index ended lower for a second day Friday marking its biggest fall since June.

Equity markets have been riding high on expectations of continuing economic recovery amid continuing stimulus measures and on signs of progress in vaccine development.

The rally however showed a delink between actual economic health and market perception and this resulted in the much anticipated correction in equity markets.

Global economic outlook remains challenged by rising virus cases globally, uneven economic recovery, increased US-China tensions and delay in additional stimulus by the US.

Crude along with other commodities came under pressure as the US dollar index attempted another recovery from 2018 lows. The US dollar benefitted from ECB's concern about euro's strength, mixed European economic data, rising virus cases in parts of Europe and Brexit uncertainty. The rise in the US dollar has come also amid positioning ahead of ECB's next monetary policy meeting as the central bank may maintain a cautious tone.

Apart from macro factors, crude oil is also pressurized by rise in OPEC's production, recovery in crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region post shutdowns caused by storm activity, slower Chinese crude imports and Saudi Arabia's move to reduce price for Asian customers in wake of weaker demand.

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Tuesday, September 8, 2020

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Thursday, September 3, 2020

Silver futures fall 0.52% to Rs 67,900 per kg


Silver prices edged lower to Rs 67,900 per kg on September 3 as participants increased their short positions. The precious metal declined 4.3 percent on the COMEX on September 2, weighed down by a rebound in the US Dollar Index.

Silver holdings in iShares ETF fell by 73.57 tonne to 17,781.05 tonne as investors booked profit.

In the futures market, silver for December delivery touched an intraday high of Rs 68,855 and a low of Rs 66,400 per kg on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX). So far in the current series, the precious metal has touched a low of Rs 49,415 and a high of Rs 79,723.

Silver futures for December delivery slipped Rs 354, or 0.52 percent, to Rs 67,900 per kg at 14:31 hours on a business turnover of 15,703 lots. The same for March delivery eased Rs 219, or 0.31 percent, to Rs 70,300 per kg on a turnover of 123 lots.

The value of December and March’s contracts traded so far is Rs 2,011.90 crore and Rs 6.08 crore, respectively.

The spot gold-to-silver ratio currently stands at 71.09 to 1, which means the amount of silver required to buy one ounce of gold.

"Silver may witness choppy trade as gold struggles for direction. However, we may see buying emerge at lower levels amid improved outlook for industrial demand and a weaker outlook for the dollar," said Kotak Securities.

At 09:06 (GMT), the precious metal was marginally up 0.08 percent at $27.41 an ounce in New York.

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